Polling places and precincts

Every polling place in the state’s file, on the newest precinct map held for the state; the note under the map says which map and which congressional districts are drawn. Pick a state, then select any county on the map to see every figure held for it, or a polling place to see the precinct it serves and the congressional district it sits in.

County

Differential participation by race, at precinct level

The earlier Vote Safe report, for the precincts of the six focus areas: citizens of voting age by race, 2024 presidential turnout, and how that turnout compares with the same state’s heavily-white precincts. Population and votes are counted up from whole census blocks.

How to read this map Majority-non-white precincts are shaded by votes at stake: the precinct’s non-white citizens multiplied by how far their estimated turnout falls below the state’s white-precinct rate. Red is a shortfall; blue is turnout at or above the benchmark. It describes a gap; it is not a target or a forecast. Turnout by race is an estimate, because precinct returns are a single total.

Method and limits

The estimate. Turnout by race comes from King’s ecological inference (1997), fitted on the seven states that record race on the registration form: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee.

Checked and unchecked. Metro Atlanta, Charlotte and Durham are in fitted states. Detroit, Columbus and Cleveland are not: Michigan and Ohio record no race, so their figures apply the seven-state result and nothing exists there to check them against. Each map says which kind it is.

A second estimator. Fitting on all thirty-nine states gives a larger shortfall in every area: 3.5 points apart in Detroit, 10 in Columbus. The first is shown because it is closer to the comparators for non-white citizens (5.8 points against the Census survey, where the second is 14.0).

Read the ranking, not the decimal. Which precincts are furthest behind is solid; the exact size of any one gap is softer.

The data. Precinct boundaries and 2024 results from the Redistricting Data Hub; citizens of voting age by race from the Census CVAP special tabulation (2020–2024 American Community Survey). The registration-form race record and the Census Current Population Survey’s November 2024 voting supplement grade the estimate and are never fed into it. Everything is held in Reference-Data under elections/derived/rxc_turnout_by_race/.

The report

preliminary draft — internal to SAM

Open the report → — ten sections, 18 figures and 26 tables in one self-contained file. It is 24 MB and takes a few seconds to open.

Built by the Voter-Vulnerability repository and replaced whole from there; never edited here.