County turnout and election results, 2010–2024, and predictions for 2026
SAM's county model (TURN0 and TURN1) predicts yes-or-no outcomes for each county and election: which party won the county and the race, whether the incumbent's party won or lost, whether the county flipped, which way the margin moved, and whether turnout went up or down. It also predicts turnout itself. Each prediction is checked against the certified results on county-elections the model was not trained on: each county-election's prediction is the mean of its predictions from the resamples that held it out (the test menu names how the rows were held out). Yes-or-no outcomes are scored by AUROC (0.5 is a coin flip, 1 is perfect); turnout by its mean error in points. The 2026 predictions are each county's probability of yes, for the Senate and governor only where a seat is up.
The map
Outcome
Model
Election
Infectious disease borders
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2026 race calls
2026 race calls scored against AP results
Final calls that were wrong
AUROC of each outcome, across the country
One AUROC per outcome, over every held-out county-election in the country (10 random 60/40 resamples), against the actual results, weighted by square root of CVAP. Each county-election's prediction is the mean of the composite (random forest, LightGBM, XGBoost) fitted on all elections and on midterms only, where both scored it. No county's or state's own history enters. Last two columns: 2026 counties with a prediction, and those over 60%.
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Who won: AUROC
Composite model (each county's mean of the random forest, LightGBM and XGBoost probabilities), all elections, weighted by citizens of voting age, scored as in the Every AUROC table below. Each outcome is scored for both parties.
2026 races, by county
Counties where one party is at least 75% likely to win. Left: the county's winner. Right: the race's winner.
Sources: certified county and precinct election results; U.S. Election Assistance Commission (EAVS); U.S. Census Bureau citizen voting-age population and county boundaries; Federal Election Commission filings; 2026 ballot and governor race lists.
Every AUROC
Each fit's AUROC over every county-election, checked against the actual results. Each county-election's prediction is the mean of its predictions from the resamples that held it out (10 random 60/40 draws, each refit with run —'s tuned settings). The composite is each county-election's mean of the three models' predictions. The 95% range is from 1,000 bootstrap draws of the county-elections. Click a column to sort; click a row to show that fit on the map.